What Happened?
Shares of online home goods retailer Wayfair (NYSE:W) fell 7.3% in the morning session after the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the Fed's preferred inflation gauge (the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index) revealed core inflation came in hotter than expected, fueling fear of stagflation (an economic situation of slow growth and rising prices). Core inflation excludes food and energy prices.
The Core PCE index showed inflation rose 2.8% (vs. estimates for a 2.7% increase) in February 2025 compared to the previous year and accelerated 0.4% (vs. estimates for a 0.3% increase) over the previous month. These figures added to concerns over proposed tariffs, which rattled markets all week.
The combination of rising inflation and escalating trade tensions likely clouded the economic outlook, raising uncertainty for businesses and policymakers.
The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks. Is now the time to buy Wayfair? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
What The Market Is Telling Us
Wayfair’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 51 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 9 days ago when the stock gained 7.3% as stocks rebounded to start the session amid continued market volatility and moved slightly higher after the Federal Open Market Committee kept rates at 4.25% to 4.50% in its March 2025 meeting.
The Jerome Powell-led committee also hinted at two more rate cuts for the year, saying, "Uncertainty around the economy has grown."
The good news was that holding rates steady and signaling two additional cuts this year meant no surprises (the market dislikes surprises).
The bad news was that the Fed reduced its outlook for growth to 1.7%, down from the previous projection of 2.1% in December. At the same time, the inflation outlook was raised to a 2.8% annual increase for core prices, up from the prior projection of 2.5%. This suggested the Fed saw the macro tilting towards a stagflation scenario, where inflation rises as economic growth slows.
Wayfair is down 26.9% since the beginning of the year, and at $33.66 per share, it is trading 53.9% below its 52-week high of $72.94 from May 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Wayfair’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $647.12.
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